BC just lost 50,000 people in a single year. Four consecutive quarters of population decline. And economists who published the latest analysis don't expect any meaningful recovery through 2028. What does that actually mean for Kelowna?
This comes down almost entirely to policy. The federal government cut the number of temporary residents allowed into Canada — international students and temporary foreign workers mostly. BC had leaned heavily on that pipeline, so it's feeling the hit hard.
New permanent residents are still arriving, but the outflow of temporary residents is large enough to swamp those gains. Layered on top of that, people who already live in BC are leaving — mostly heading to Alberta, chasing lower housing costs and higher wages.
Five years ago, Kelowna was the fastest-growing metro area in all of Canada. That story has changed significantly.
Look at how many new people the central Okanagan added each year: roughly 8,000 in 2022, 6,100 in 2023, 5,600 in 2024, and under 3,000 in 2025 — the weakest year of the decade. In 2025, only 646 people moved to Kelowna from other provinces. BC Stats now projects the central Okanagan may actually shrink in 2026, potentially dropping below 250,000 people.
In the short term, less demand pressure means more inventory sitting, more negotiating room, and more subject-to-sale offers getting accepted. Buyers have more time and more choices right now.
But you need to hold two ideas at once. While demand is cooling, builders are pulling back hard. Building permits are down. Projects are getting shelved. And construction decisions made today will determine supply available in 2027 and 2028. If migration recovers even modestly — and there's nothing new to buy — this market could flip faster than people expect.
A downtown investor condo and a single-family home in the Lower Mission are living in completely different markets right now. Figuring out where your specific property fits is a conversation worth having.
Whether you're buying, selling, or just keeping an eye on the market, I'd love to connect. No pressure — just a straight conversation about where you stand.
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