There are currently about 118 condos for sale in Kelowna built in 2024 or newer. In the last 30 days, only 7 sold — nearly 17 months of inventory. The overall Kelowna condo market sits at around 7 months, meaning new condos carry more than double the backlog. And those 118 listings only reflect MLS inventory. James estimates another 200–300 units of developer inventory exist outside the MLS, making the real supply picture significantly larger.
Many of these condos were pre-sales committed to years ago — when rates were lower, the resale market was stronger, and rental projections looked very different. Owners taking possession in 2024, 2025, or 2026 face a completely different market. With multiple similar units in the same building, nearby buildings, and direct from developers, buyers have enormous leverage. If your unit is priced even $30,000 above a comparable listing because that's your break-even, buyers won't care — they'll choose the better-priced option. Some sellers have already absorbed losses of $150,000–$200,000 below their original purchase price.
Kelowna's rental market has shifted dramatically. In 2025 alone, more than 1,800 new purpose-built rental homes were completed in the city, on top of thousands added in prior years. The vacancy rate hit 6.9% in 2025 and remains above 6%. Individual condo owners now compete against professional leasing teams offering perks like two months free rent and $1,500 grocery gift cards. A well-located condo at the right price can still attract a tenant — but it's no longer the automatic fallback it once appeared to be.
If selling doesn't work and renting doesn't pencil out, the third option is to hold. For owners who can comfortably carry costs and plan to hold 5–10 years, that may be the right call. But mortgage payments, strata fees, property taxes, and insurance don't pause. And for owners whose life has changed since a 2021 pre-sale commitment — a new partner, a child, a relocation — the calculus today may look very different from four or five years ago.
James stops short of calling it a crash — the data shows a significant supply and demand imbalance, not a collapse. But 118 active listings, 7 sales in 30 days, and 17 months of inventory (before developer inventory) is a real imbalance. He's watching whether large price reductions become more common, whether developers increase incentives, or whether sales pick up to absorb supply. The June 1st STR ban lift created a small uptick in short-term rental-eligible buildings, but it's too early to call it a trend.
For sellers: Don't anchor to other asking prices — look at what has actually sold. Understand the full competition a buyer sees: your building, nearby buildings, and developer inventory. In a 17-month inventory market, pricing to what you paid won't change what a buyer will offer.
For buyers: This market gives you leverage. Take your time, compare buildings, and negotiate — even after a price drop, another 3–4% off list is common. Make sure the numbers make sense. Buying a newer Kelowna condo well below the original purchase price is real right now, but not every discounted listing is a good deal. Know what comparables have actually sold for, not just what's listed.
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