Kelowna has delivered 6,384 new housing units in two years — more than double its year-two provincial housing target, and essentially two full years ahead of schedule. But the city itself acknowledged in writing that "recent trends in development and building permits could lead to a decrease in completed occupancies in the coming years." Both things are true at the same time.
In June 2024, the province set Kelowna a 5-year housing target of 8,774 new units. Year 1: 3,467 net units delivered — about 150% above target. Year 2: 2,917 net units (after demolitions). Total through two years: 6,384 units. The city is only 112 units short of where the province expected it to be at the end of year four — effectively two years ahead of schedule.
A unit completed in 2026 was approved and financed back in 2021 or 2022 — when interest rates were at historic lows and pre-sales sold out in hours. What you're looking at is the result of decisions made during the boom.
That world is gone. Pre-sales have dried up. Developers have been shelving projects for the better part of two years. Some major projects have cancelled entirely. BC's condo bailout program and buyers walking away from pre-sale deposits are real phenomena happening across the Okanagan.
Here's the actual headline from the city's report: during the same period when nearly 3,000 units were completing per year, the city issued only 12 new development permits representing around 1,300 units total.
A unit can't complete in 2028 if it was never permitted in 2026. The slowdown in permits today is the slowdown in completions you'll see in two to four years. Council recently cut development cost charges by 25% to keep projects financially viable, but the real bottleneck isn't fees — it's the dead pre-sale market.
Right now, we're living through peak supply. Inventory is elevated, sellers are frustrated, and buyers — especially condo buyers — have more leverage than they've had in years. That's today's market.
But today's market has a shelf life. If permits stay where they are, completions start falling off around 2027–2028 — right as potential rate cuts could pull sidelined buyers back in. The window where buyers hold the cards is a product of decisions made four to five years ago. The decisions being made right now are already shaping the market you'll be shopping in if you're looking in 2028 or beyond.
Whether you're buying, selling, or just keeping an eye on the market, I'd love to connect. No pressure — just a straight conversation about where you stand.
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